Understanding the adoption of an innovation

The Everett Rogers curve

The principle of the curve theorized by Everett Rogers is simple: on the x-axis, time; on the y-axis, population. A radically innovative new product will first find a very small audience, then a larger one, before reaching the majority, and finally, at the end of its life, reach only a small audience again before being abandoned. The curve is divided into 5 categories of consumer profiles with different behaviors.

The analysis that follows is nonetheless personal, informed by what I have learned through projects and my sociological research.

The sociological profiles of consumers

It is important to understand that a market's adoption of an innovation has little to do with a functional need, but mainly responds to social comfort and a need for status or ideological signaling. By owning (or not owning) a given object, I signal around me a way of being that will be recognized and that will allow me to build connections with certain people and distance from others. In creating our persona this way, for ourselves and for others, we build our social comfort.

Objects play this role, but so does the way we speak or move, our cultural references…

None of us, however, is defined by a single category: for my part, I can be an Innovator for shoes (Nike ISPA, Crocs Salehe Bembury), an Early Adopter in mobility equipment (Honda E, Cake Osa +), Early Majority for surfing (Firewire), Traditional Majority for skating (Independent Trucks), and Conservative for HiFi (Sansui, JBL Vintage).

The Innovators

Innovators want to feel very ahead of their time, they live in the future. They enjoy having nothing in common with the majority and do everything to make that visible. They are, for example, the first to have adopted Monowheels, or, in fashion, to dress in the most niche and radical designers, sporting extremely committed styles.

Innovators are seen as "weirdos" by the majority, and are very comfortable with that.

The Early Adopters

Early Adopters also want to be ahead of their time, but with the assurance that what they adopt will become the norm within a few years. They don't want to take social risks with overly radical stances, and so adopt trends once they have the necessary reassurance. For example, the Renault Twizy was a product for Innovators, but the Tesla speaks to Early Adopter behaviors, as does the Gorp Core style, Teenage Engineering or Kombucha.

The Early Majority

With this category, we reach a significant part of the population. The Early Majority wants to live with its time, to be fashionable, without standing out too strongly. This is the type of person who wears Converse Chuck Taylors, Nike Air Force Ones, who has adopted the electric bike or eats less meat.

The Traditional Majority

The other side of the majority is wary of trends and prefers objects that have proven themselves over time. They are inspired by history and tradition without rejecting the contemporary world. Brands like Saint James or Barbour speak to these people, as do regional cuisine restaurants.

The Conservatives

For Conservatives, only what has been proven over the long term has value. They broadly reject any contemporary approach. Here we find many geeky profiles, such as audiophiles, wine or ancient literature experts. These are also radical behaviors.

Influence

Every person on this curve is influenced by those to their right and to their left. The extremes (innovators / conservatives) are thus the original profiles of influence. It is these extremes that allow these trends to move: if one extreme becomes more radical, the formerly extreme behavior then becomes moderate and shifts category.

For example, if being vegetarian in the early 2000s was an extreme behavior reserved for Innovators, today vegans exist, which opens vegetarian diets to Early Adopters and "flexitarians" to the Early Majority. Conversely, a political radicalization of Conservatives will pull the Traditional Majority toward behaviors formerly considered radical, now de-stigmatized.

The influence of these extremes therefore carries major social importance!

Stakes for brands

At the scale of a brand, it is essential to understand these behaviors in order to adapt the product response to a given strategy.

A "buzz" innovation

It is a common strategy to launch an innovation so radical that it will only be adopted by Innovators. Because of their influence, this innovation can serve the brand for the purpose of brand awareness. The product is then a marketing campaign.

For example, the Coperni Aerogel bag had a big media impact but did not sell.

There is no profitability to be expected from Innovators. Addressing this category is a matter of R&D and trend exploration.

Emerging markets

To establish itself in an emerging market (or to create one), a brand must target Early Adopters. By positioning itself with this target, a brand gains a head start on the majority and addresses a small but profitable market.

This is the strategy we put in place for DAB Motors: going after not the hardcore biker crowd, but people with an affinity for two-wheelers who are also into fashion and tech.

This is an excellent strategy for building a brand's future. It is not a matter of bringing something never seen before, but of drawing inspiration from what breaks through with Innovators and making compromises on radicality.

The best-seller

Launching a product intended to become a best-seller means addressing the majority of one's market, that is, the Early Majority and the Traditional Majority. It is again a matter of understanding what works well in the previous category and compromising its radicality to bring the reassurance needed for adoption.

To reach the Early Majority, one would need to build on the work of brands positioned in the Early Adopters segment. To reach the Traditional Majority, one will need to transform what already exists in the Early Majority market.

Multiple strategies

Nike is the only brand that comes to mind as capable of addressing all verticals thanks to the segmentation of its communication channels:

• ISPA for the Innovators (known only to them and to Early Adopters)
• Space Hippie for the Early Adopters
• Dunk for the Early Majority
• GMS models found at Intersport "by default" for the Traditional Majority
• Counterfeits or hand-me-down shoes for the Conservatives/skeptics

This strategy is therefore absolutely unfeasible for a smaller brand. One must therefore pick a side, limit one's investment to one or two categories, and build on the work of other brands. This is how the market has always worked.

Knowing your target

In order to adapt the product response to the chosen strategy, the next step is to know the cultural and emotional background of your target. Let's not forget, the brand's goal will be to provide an object that allows a person to build their public and private persona, so it is necessary to understand their language.

Which category does your brand fall into today, and where will it be tomorrow, given the curve's natural drift?

Feel free to contact us to understand how we use this curve to build the future of brands.